Model-driven football analysis

Football, modelled — not guessed.

A statistical model rates every team from thousands of real results, prices a dozen markets as calibrated probabilities, and has AI explain each one in plain language — grounded strictly in the data. Then every call is graded in public.

20 leagues 12+ markets / match Daily updates 100% traceable
Premier League · Example fixture
ArsenalvAston Villa
The call
Home win
64%
Arsenal 64%Draw 22%Villa 14%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Both teams to score48%
Asian handicap · Arsenal -1.538%
Most likely score · 2-0~13%
20
leagues worldwide
12+
markets every match
7d
of fixtures ahead
0
numbers we invent
How it works

Three steps. No black box.

Every number on ModelXI traces back to real match data. Here's the whole pipeline, start to finish.

01

The model learns

A Dixon-Coles statistical model rates every team's attack and defence from thousands of real results across the last two seasons.

Recent form is weighted more heavily than old results, so a team's rating reflects who they are now — not who they were a year ago.
02

It prices every market

From that goal model it computes calibrated probabilities for the result, handicaps, totals, both-teams-to-score, correct scores and more.

One model, a dozen markets — all internally consistent, because they're derived from the same distribution of likely scores.
03

AI explains it

A language model turns the numbers into a short, readable preview — grounded strictly in the model's output and real form.

It's not allowed to invent a single fact. If the model didn't say it, the AI can't write it. Coin-flips are called honestly.
See it in action

What a call looks like.

Every match gets a headline call, full win probabilities, and a dozen graded markets underneath.

La Liga · Example
Real MadridvGetafe
Real Madrid -1.567%
Madrid 78%Draw 14%Getafe 8%
Serie A · Example
IntervJuventus
Under 2.5 goals58%
Inter 44%Draw 31%Juve 25%
Bundesliga · Example
DortmundvLeipzig
Both teams to score71%
Dortmund 41%Draw 26%Leipzig 33%

Illustrative examples of the format. Live calls update every day on the dashboard.

How accurate is it?

We don't ask you to trust a number.

We publish every result instead. This is the honest answer to "how good is it?"

Calibration, not bravado.

A prediction is only worth anything if its confidence is real. The test isn't whether we sound confident — it's whether a "70%" call actually happens about 70% of the time, over many matches.

"When the model says 65%, does it land 65% of the time? That's the only question that matters — and it's one you can check."

That's why every single call the model makes is graded against the real final score and shown publicly. No cherry-picking, no hidden misses. You judge us on the record.

See the live track record
Stated vs actual — the calibration test
50–60% callsland ~55%
60–70% callsland ~64%
70–80% callsland ~73%
80–90% callsland ~86%
Illustration of how calibration is measured. Real figures build on the live track record as matches are played — a well-calibrated model's "actual" tracks close to its "stated".
The honest part

What ModelXI won't do.

  • Promise guaranteed winners.
  • Claim you'll make money every week.
  • Invent numbers we can't model — no faked corners or cards.
  • Hide our misses or dress up a coin-flip as a lock.

We show you probabilities and the reasoning behind them. The decision is always yours.

Plans

Start free. Upgrade when it's worth it.

Every plan runs on the same honest model. Paid tiers just remove the limits and add depth.

 
Free
€0
  • 5 matches per day
  • Headline call + result probabilities
  • A taste of the AI analysis
  • Full market breakdown
  • All leagues & all days
  • Track record & best calls
Most popular
Pro
€5 / month
  • Every match, no daily cap
  • All 20 leagues worldwide
  • Full market breakdown — handicaps, totals, correct scores
  • Full AI analysis on every match
  • Today plus the next 10 days
  • Track record & best calls
Coming soon
Notify me at launch
 
Elite
€10 / month
  • Everything in Pro
  • Track record & calibration data
  • The day's highest-confidence best calls
  • Early access to new leagues & features
  • Priority as new tools ship
Coming soon
Notify me at launch

Prices in EUR. Paid plans open soon — the full dashboard is free while ModelXI is in early access.

FAQ

Straight answers.

Is this betting advice?

No. ModelXI is statistical analysis for information — probability estimates and reasoning. It doesn't tell you to place a bet and it doesn't guarantee outcomes. What you do with it is your call.

Do you guarantee wins?

No, and anyone who does is lying. Football is uncertain by nature. We estimate probabilities as honestly as we can and show our reasoning; we don't sell certainty.

How do I know it's actually accurate?

You watch the track record. Every call the model makes is graded against the real final score and shown publicly, including calibration — whether a 70% call really happens about 70% of the time. It builds as matches are played, so you can verify it yourself.

Which leagues are covered?

Eighteen at launch — the big European leagues plus Brazil, Argentina, MLS, Liga MX, Liga I and others. Each has enough history for the model to be credible. More as it proves out.

Why no corners, cards or injuries?

Because our model doesn't measure them — and we won't fake numbers we can't stand behind. Those need different data and different models. They're on the roadmap, honestly labelled as coming.

Is it free?

Yes, for now. If premium tiers arrive later, the core analysis stays honest either way.

Today's football, analysed.

Eighteen leagues, a dozen markets each, refreshed daily — and every call graded in public.

Open the dashboard